Sunday, February 3, 2008

10 Steps To Professional Day Trading


Everyone trades a little differently. The trading method outlined below is MY personal approach to trading. This method has worked for me for the last 20 years, and has helped me to avoid big draw downs since the mid 1980's. My trading strategy has helped me to make a good living trading.

Here is my 10 Step Approach to Learning My Style of Trading:

1. Practice exiting trades at break-even, using a one-tick target, a two or three tick soft stop (mental stop) and a 1.5 point hard stop. Never *allow* the market hit your hard stop. Exit by moving your target toward your hard stop, not by moving your hard stop towards your target. With time, all of this must become a reflex. You won't always be able to keep your losses down to 2 ticks, but only on rare occasions should you find yourself letting the market hit your hard stop. ("Rarely" means only about once every 50-100 trades after you get the hang of it.)

Even though your entries won't be good enough in the beginning to make a profit trading these tight soft stops, your entries will gradually improve until you turn the corner and become profitable.

Learn exits and entries separately. Don't let the one influence the other.

Taking losses this way takes dedication and discipline, so stick with it. It's the key to confident trading. If you never take large losses (and rarely medium size ones), the fear of loss pretty much goes away, and your confidence grows. Especially after your entries improve enough to support a "scalping" type exit strategy.

2. Every trade *in all market conditions* begins as a scalp. Let me clarify this: if you're in a choppy market and you're looking to get small gains, like a point or so, manage your initial hard and soft stops *exactly* the same way you would in a quick trend or any other type of market. That means keeping losses as close to 2 ticks as possible, taking lots of break even trades and exiting every time the market doesn't give you *instant gratification* (within a minute or so).

No matter what the market is doing, you must demand that it moves in your favor right after you enter, otherwise you get out as close to break even as possible. This means you'll be closing a lot of trades near break-even within the first minute. This is the foundation of learning to trade for consistent gains.

3. Don't worry about the commissions on break-even trades. If you do, you'll hold on to losing positions, begging them to turn around for you. This is called *hoping.* In this business, this type of *hoping* is the kiss of death. Your money-making trades must move your way in the first minute or less. When trades don't act right in the first minute, most of them will hit your hard stops.

So don't get hung up on the fact that your broker loves you. Who cares if he/she makes a living?

Your concern is *limiting losses*. I care more about this than anything else in trading. (Well-timed entries make my tight soft stops possible, so they're almost as important as the exits.)

4. Practice your entries until your timing is so good that you can *reasonably expect* the market to go your way immediately, before it goes more than 2 ticks against you. This is not easy at first, but if you stick with it, you'll get it.

5. Practice fading the emotional extremes on your entries. (Fading means entering in the opposite direction of the market's last move.) When an extreme NYSE-Tick (often above 1000 or below -1000) occurs at the same time the market accelerates into a support or resistance area, look for a price stall or reversal and fade the move. Fade the emotion.

6. Rarely, if ever, *chase* the market on your entries. Wait for a pullback to get onboard a trend.

I favor shorts over longs... I can get out of a short position quicker than I can get out of a long position. I don't know why. I like to say that I "see gravity better than helium." In the rare strong-trending markets where I may chase an entry, it's going to be a down trend, not an uptrend. I don't trust up trends enough to chase them. Maybe it's just a personal quirk and maybe not. I honestly don't know.

But it's interesting to note that most (not all) professional traders I've met are Bears and prefer short positions over longs. You should give it some thought and find out which direction works better for you. Are your losses bigger on shorts or longs? Specialize in one direction and trade the other direction only when things are looking real good.

7. Never let a gain turn into a loss. This will mean getting out of most trades a little (or a lot) too soon. You just have to live with it. Swing for home runs (greed) will ruin your trading. There is no mechanical formula that I know of, (such as, "move your stop to break even after you get 3 ticks gain") that will work. You have to develop a feel for how the market is acting at the moment, and use your feel to reduce your target or advance your hard stop. This comes with experience.

8. Develop a feel for the big picture movements of the market, not just the intraday action. Use the end-of-day market internals to analyze the market's mood and develop a daily bias.

9. Practice does *not* make perfect. Only *perfect practice* makes perfect. I learned this in my younger years, pursuing a professional
baseball career. Perfect practice will keep your losses smaller than your gains in the trading business.

There are a lot of things involved in perfect practice. When you get tired, or when the phone rings, or whatnot, *don't trade*. Always, *always* exit trades exactly the way I've outlined above on every trade in every market condition. Always *wait* for your pitch, the well-timed setup for entering. Don't practice sloppy entries just because you're bored. Only perfect practice will help you. Anything else just amounts to practicing bad habits.

10. Get a mentor. I traded for 6 years before I learned to keep my losses small. My trading turned around immediately after I met my mentor and talked to him on the phone for one week. Is there any serious profession that you can learn without a mentor? Maybe there is, but I don't know of any. It's certainly not trading.

Six Reasons Why You Need a Trading System

Every minute more than 150 Million Dollars change hands in the electronic index futures markets like the e-mini S&P and e-mini NQ. You can win or lose thousands of dollars in a few minutes; the futures markets can make you rich in a few weeks or months or wipe out your account with no mercy.If you want to compete in the game of games and play against the best traders in the world, then you need to get ready. Too many gamblers are entering the arena without any plan or strategy, completely unprepared, and that's why they lose.Trading a system will dramatically increase your chances to succeed in trading, because it eliminates five of the top six reasons why unprepared traders fail.

Here are the top six reasons why traders fail,
and how a trading system eliminates them

Let's take a look at the reasons why traders lose money:

1. Lack of a Trading Plan
2. Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
3. Failure to Control Emotions
4. Failure to Accept and Limit Losses
5. Lack of Commitment
6. Over-Trading
By all means you have to avoid these mistakes if you want to win.Here's how a trading system eliminates 5 of the 6 top reasons why traders fail:

Solution #1: Having a trading plan
Having a trading system means having a pre-defined set of rules you have developed to guide your trading. Therefore you HAVE a trading plan, eliminating the No.1 cause for failure.
Solution #2: Following the trading plan
The easiest way to follow a trading plan is to automate it. Almost every trading system can be automated, and you could let the computer trade for you. You won't have to worry about your discipline any longer, as the computer mechanically trades every setup for you.
Solution #3: Controlling emotions
Trading with a system removes emotions from trading. If you don't have a strategy and you try to make decisions when the market is moving, you are liable to become emotionally attached to positions. You may experience panic and indecision when the market does not move in your favor, as you do not have a prepared response. That's when most traders lose their money. If you follow a system you will know what to do no matter what the market does.
Solution #4: Controlling your losses
You probably have heard the saying Let your profits run. Unfortunately most traders let their losses run. A trading system will get you out of a position when the predefined stop is hit. Unless you override the system to give the trade a little bit more room it will stop the loss and therefore limit your losses.
Solution #5: Commitment
You won't believe how many traders show a lack of commitment and therefore lose money. Lack of commitment means that they stop trading after the first loss, and don't give their system a chance to make back the money they lost. Trading is not a one-way street, and losses are part of our business. If you can't accept the fact that there will be losses, you shouldn't trade. Fortunately a trading system can help you to overcome this problem; an automated trading system continues trading according to the rules, and therefore adds much more consistency to your trading.
As you can see, Five of the six top reasons why traders lose money in the markets are simply eliminated when you start trading with a system.Without any guarantee, your chances of making money rise incredibly when starting with a profitable trading system.

How to Find a Day Trading System that Works

Day Trading with a system will dramatically improve your chances of making money in the markets.

The next challenge is to find a day-trading system that works. Today you have the chance to choose from more than 300 daytrading systems available. Unfortunately just 10% of them are trading profitably.

In the next three minutes I will present you the 10 Power Principles for Successful Day Trading Systems, which will help and support you in your research.


Principle #1: Few rules - easy to understand

It may surprise you that the best trading systems have less than 10 rules. The more rules you have, the more likely you "curve-fitted" your trading system to the past, and such an over-optimized system is very unlikely to produce profits in real markets.

It's important that your rules are easy to understand and execute. The markets can behave very wild and move fast, and you won't have the time to calculate complicated formulas in order to make a trading decision. Think about successful floor traders: The only tool they use is a calculator, and they make thousands of dollars every day.


Principle #2: Trade electronic and liquid markets

We strongly recommend that you trade electronic markets because the commissions are lower and you receive instant fills. You need to know as fast as possible if your order was filled and at what price, because based on this information you plan your exit.

You should never place an exit order before you know that your entry order is filled. When you trade open outcry markets (non-electronic) you might have to wait awhile before you receive your fill. By that time, the market might have already turned and your profitable trade has turned into a loss!

When trading electronic markets you receive your fills in less than one second and can immediately place your exit orders. Trading liquid markets you can avoid slippage, which will save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars.


Principle #3: Make consistent profits

You should always look for a daytrading system that produces a nice and smooth equity curve, even if in the long run the net profit is slightly smaller. Most professional traders prefer to take small profits every day instead of big profits every now and then. If you trade for a living, you need to pay your bills from your trading profits, and therefore you should regularly deposit profits into your trading account.

Making consistent profits is the secret of successful traders!


Principle #4: Maintain a healthy balance between risk and reward

Let me give you an example: If you go to a casino and bet everything you have on "red", then you have a 49% chance of doubling your money and a 51% chance of losing everything. The same applies to day trading: You can make a lot of money if you are risking a lot, but then risk of ruin is very high. You need to find a healthy balance between risk and reward.

Let's say you define "ruin" as losing 20% of your account, and you define "success" as making 20% profits. Having a trading system with past performance results let you calculate the "risk of ruin" and "chance of success".

Your risk of ruin should be always less than 5%, and your chance of success should be 5-10 times higher, e.g. if your risk of ruin is 4%, then your chance of success should be 40% or higher.


Principle #5: Find a system that produces at least five trades per week

The higher the trading frequency the smaller the chances of having a losing month. If you have a day trading system that has a winning percentage of 70%, but only produces 1 trade per month, then 1 loser is enough to have a losing month. In this example, you could have several losing months in a row before you finally start making profits. In the meantime, how do you pay for your bills?

If your day trading system produces five trades per week, then you have on average 20 trades per month. Having a winning percentage of 70% - your chances of a winning month are extremely high.
That's the goal of all traders: Having as many winning months as possible!


Principle #6: Start small - grow big

Your day trading system should allow you to start small and grow big. A good day trading system allows you to start with one or two contracts, and then increases your position as your trading account grows. This is in contrast to many "martingale" trading systems that require increasing position sizes when you are in a losing streak.

You probably heard about this strategy: Double your contracts every time you lose, and one winner will win back all the money you previously lost. It's not unusual to have 4-5 losing trades in a row, and this would already require to trade 16 contracts after just 4 losses! Trading the e-mini S&P you would then need an account size of at least $63,200, just to meet the margin requirement. That's why martingale systems don't work.


Principle #7: Automate your day trading

Emotions and human errors are the most common mistakes that traders make. By all means you have to avoid these mistakes. Especially during fast markets, it is crucial that you determine the entry and exit points fast and accurately; otherwise, you might miss a trade or find yourself in a losing position.

Therefore you should automate your trading and look for a day trading system that either already is or can be automated. Automating your trading makes it free of human emotion. The buy and sell operations are all automatic, hands-free, with no manual interventions and you can be sure that you make profits when you should according to your plan.


Principle #8: Have a high percentage of winning trades

Your day trading strategy should produce more than 50% winners. There's no doubt that trading systems with smaller winning percentages can be profitable, too, but the psychological pressure is enormous. Taking 7 losers out of 10 trades and not doubting the system takes great discipline, and many traders can't stand the pressure. After the sixth loser they start "improving" the system or stop trading it completely.

Especially for beginners it is a big help to gain confidence in your trading and your system if you have a high winning percentage of more than 65%.


Principle #9: Look for a system that is tested on at least 200 trades

The more trades you use in your backtesting (without curve-fitting), the higher the probabilities that your day trading system will succeed in the future. Look at the following table:

Number of Trades
50
100
200
300
500
Margin of Error
14%
10%
7%
6%
4%

The more trades you have in your backtesting, the smaller the margin of error, and the higher the probability of producing profits in the future.


Principle #10: Chose a valid backtesting period

I recently saw the following ad: "Since 1994 I've taught thousands of traders worldwide a Simple and Reliable E-Mini trading methodology".

That's very interesting, because the e-mini S&P was introduced in September 1997, and the e-mini Nasdaq in June 1999, therefore, none of these contracts existed before 1997. What kind of e-mini trading did this vendor teach from 1994-1997???

The same applies to your backtesting: If you developed an e-mini S&P trading strategy, then you should backtest it only for the past 2-4 years, because even though the contract has existed since 1997, there was practically nobody trading it (see chart below):

eminiSP Monthly Volume

Now you know how to separate the scam from good working day trading systems. By applying this checklist you will easily identify day trading systems that work and those that will never make it.

Making sure your trading plan works

In our article "Define your Goals and Make a Plan" you learned:

  • How to define your financial and trading goals.
  • How to select the right market for your trading goals.
  • What timeframe you should trade in.
  • The difference between trading styles and how to find the right one for you.
  • How to create a basic trading plan.

Now that you defined your goals and created your trading plan, you need to make sure it really works. Thus far everything might look great, but how can you be sure that the system works when you start trading it with real money?

Evaluating a trading system is easier than you think. Below you'll find 10 Principles of Successful Trading Systems that we developed and refined over the last couple of years.You should use these Power Principles to evaluate your trading system, whether you developed it on your own or think about purchasing one. By checking a system against these principles you can dramatically increase the chances of being successful.

Here we go:

Principle #1: Few rules - easy to understand

It may surprise you that the best trading systems have less than 10 rules. The more rules you have, the more likely you "curve-fitted" your trading system to the past, and such an over-optimized system is very unlikely to produce profits in real markets.

It's important that your rules are easy to understand and execute. The markets can behave very wild and move fast, and you won't have the time to calculate complicated formulas in order to make a trading decision. Think about successful floor traders: The only tool they use is a calculator, and they make thousands of dollars every day.


Principle #2: Trade electronic and liquid markets

I strongly recommend that you trade electronic markets because commissions are lower and you receive instant fills. You need to know as fast as possible if your order was filled and at what price, because based on this information you plan your exit.

You should never place an exit order before you know that your entry order is filled. When you trade open outcry markets (non-electronic) you might have to wait a while before you receive your fill. By that time, the market might have already turned and your profitable trade has turned into a loss!

When trading electronic markets you receive your fills in less than one second and can immediately place your exit orders. Trading liquid markets you can avoid slippage, which will save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars.


Principle #3: Realistic expectations

Losses are part of our business. A trading system that doesn't have losses is "too good to be true". Recently I ran into a trading system with a whopping winning percentage of 91% and a drawdown of less than $500. WOW!

When looking at the details it turned out that the system was only tested on 87 trades and - of course - curvefitted. If you run across a trading systems with numbers too good to be true, then it's probably exactly THAT: Too good to be true.

Usually you can expect the following from a robust trading system:

  • A winning percentage of 60-80%
  • A profit factor of 1.3 - 2.5
  • A maximum drawdown of 10-20% of the yearly profit.

Use these numbers as a rough guideline, and you will easily identify curvefitted systems.

Principle #4: Maintain a healthy balance between risk and reward

Let me give you an example:

If you go to a casino and bet everything you have on "red", then you have a 49% chance of doubling your money and a 51% chance of losing everything. The same applies to trading: You can make a lot of money if you are risking a lot, but then risk of ruin is very high. You need to find a healthy balance between risk and reward.

Let's say you define "ruin" as losing 20% of your account, and you define "success" as making 20% profits. Having a trading system with past performance results let you calculate the "risk of ruin" and "chance of success".

Your risk of ruin should be always less than 5%, and your chance of success should be 5-10 times higher, e.g. if your risk of ruin is 4%, then your chance of success should be 40% or higher.


Principle #5: Find a system that produces at least five trades per week

The higher the trading frequency the smaller the chances of having a losing month. If you have a trading system that has a winning percentage of 70%, but only produces 1 trade per month, then 1 loser is enough to have a losing month. In this example, you could have several losing months in a row before you finally start making profits. In the meantime, how do you pay for your bills?

If your trading system produces five trades per week, then you have on average 20 trades per month. Having a winning percentage of 70% - your chances of a winning month are extremely high.

And that's the goal of all traders: Having as many winning months as possible!


Principle #6: Start small - grow big

Your trading system should allow you to start small and grow big. A good trading system allows you to start with one or two contracts, and then increase your position as your trading account grows. This is in contrast to many "martingale" trading systems that require increasing position sizes when you are in a losing streak.

You probably heard about this strategy: Double your contracts every time you lose, and one winner will win back all the money you previously lost. It's not unusual to have 4-5 losing trades in a row, and this would already require to trade 16 contracts after just 4 losses! Trading the e-mini S&P you would then need an account size of at least $63,200, just to meet the margin requirement. That's why martingale systems don't work.


Principle #7: Automate your trading

Emotions and human errors are the most common mistakes that traders make. By all means you have to avoid these mistakes. Especially during fast markets, it is crucial that you determine the entry and exit points fast and accurately; otherwise, you might miss a trade or find yourself in a losing position.

Therefore you should automate your trading and look for a trading system that either already is or can be automated. Automating your trading makes it free of human emotion. The buy and sell operations are all automatic, hands-free, with no manual interventions and you can be sure that you make profits when you should according to your plan.


Principle #8: Have a high percentage of winning trades

Your trading strategy should produce more than 50% winners. There's no doubt that trading systems with smaller winning percentages can be profitable, too, but the psychological pressure is enormous. Taking 7 losers out of 10 trades and not doubting the system takes great discipline, and many traders can't stand the pressure. After the sixth loser they start "improving" the system or stop trading it completely.

Especially for beginners it is a big help to gain confidence in your trading and your system if you have a high winning percentage of more than 65%.


Principle #9: Look for a system that is tested on at least 200 trades

The more trades you use in your backtesting (without curve-fitting), the higher the probabilities that your trading system will succeed in the future. Look at the following table:

Number of Trades 50 100 200 300 500 Margin of Error 14% 10% 7% 6% 4%

The more trades you have in your backtesting, the smaller the margin of error, and the higher the probability of producing profits in the future.


Principle #10: Chose a valid backtesting period

I recently saw the following ad: "Since 1994 I've taught thousands of traders worldwide a Simple and Reliable E-Mini trading methodology".

That's very interesting, because the e-mini S&P was introduced in September 1997, and the e-mini Nasdaq in June 1999, therefore, none of these contracts existed before 1997. What kind of e-mini trading did this vendor teach from 1994-1997???

The same applies to your backtesting: If you developed an e-mini S&P trading strategy, then you should backtest it only for the past 3-4 years, because even though the contract has existed since 1997, there was practically nobody trading it (see chart below):

As you can see, it's rather easy to find a trading system that works. By applying this checklist you will easily identify trading systems that work and those that will never make it.

How to Develop a Profitable Trading System

In this article I will explain to you how to develop a profitable trading system in five steps:

Step 1: Select a market and a timeframe
Step 2: Define entry rules
Step 3: Define exit rules
Step 4: Evaluate your system
Step 5: Improving the system

Let’s take a closer look at these steps.

Step 1: Select a market and a timeframe

Every market and every timeframe can be traded with a system. But if you want to look at 50 different futures markets and 6 major timeframes (e.g. 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min, 60min and daily), then you need to evaluate 300 possible options. Here are some hints on how to limit your choices:

  • Though you can trade every futures markets, we recommend that you stick to the electronic markets (e.g. e-mini S&P and other indices, Treasury Bonds and Notes, Currencies, etc). Usually these markets are very liquid, and you won’t have a problem entering and exiting a trade. Another advantage of electronic markets is lower commissions: Expect to pay at least half the commissions you pay on non-electronic markets. Sometimes the difference can be as high as 75%.
  • When you select a smaller timeframes (less than 60min) your average profit per trade is usually comparably low. On the other hand you get more trading opportunities. When trading on a larger timeframe your profits per trade will be bigger, but you will have less trading opportunities. It’s up to you to decide which timeframe suits you best.
  • Smaller timeframes mean smaller profits, but usually smaller risk, too. When you are starting with a small trading account, then you might want to select a small timeframe to make sure that you are not overtrading your account.

Most profitable trading systems use larger timeframes like daily and weekly. These system work, too, but be prepared for less trading action and bigger drawdowns.

Step 2: Define entry rules

Let’s simplify the myths of “entry rules”:

Basically there are 2 different kinds of entry setups:

  • Trend-following
    When prices are moving up, you buy, and when prices are going down, you sell.
  • Trend-fading
    When prices are trading at an extreme (e.g. upper band of a channel), you sell, and you try to catch the small move while prices are moving back into “normalcy”. The same applies for selling.

In my opinion swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet. By contrast, trend trading offers greater profit potential if a trader is able to catch a major market trend of weeks or months, but few are the traders with sufficient discipline to hold a position for that period of time without getting distracted.

Most indicators that you will find in your charting software belong to one of these two categories: You have either indicators for identifying trends (e.g. Moving Averages) or indicators that define overbought or oversold situations and therefore offer you a trade setup for a short term swing trade.

So don’t become confused by all the possibilities of entering a trade. Just make sure that you understand why you are using a certain indicator or what the indicator is measuring. An example of a simple swing trading strategy can be found in the next chapter.

Step 3: Define exit rules

Let’s keep it simple here, too: There are two different exit rules you want to apply:

  • Stop Loss Rules to protect your capital and
  • Profit Taking Exits to realize your profits

Both exit rules can be expressed in four ways:

  • A fixed dollar amount (e.g. $1,000)
  • A percentage of the current price (e.g. 1% of the entry price)
  • A percentage of the volatility (e.g. 50% of the average daily movement) or
  • A time stop (e.g. exit after 3 days)

We don’t recommend using a fixed dollar amount, because markets are too different. For example, natural gas changes an average of a few thousand dollars per day per contract; however, Eurodollars change an average of a few hundred dollars a day per contract. You need to balance and normalize this difference when developing a trading system and testing it on different markets. That’s why you should always use percentages for stops and profit targets (e.g. 1% stop) or a volatility stop instead of a fixed dollar amount.

A time stop gets you out of a trade if it is not moving in any direction, therefore freeing your capital for other trades.

Step 4: Evaluate your system

The first figure to look for is the net profit. Obviously you want your system to generate profits. But don’t be frustrated when during the development stage your trading system shows a loss; try to reverse your entry signals. On our website www.rockwelltrading.com you already learned that trading is a zero sum game: So if you are going long at a certain price level, and you lose, then try to go short instead. Many times this is the easiest way to turn a losing system into a winning one.

The next figure you want to look at is the average profit per trade. Make sure this number is greater than slippage and commissions, and that it makes your trading worthwhile. Trading is all about risk and reward, and you want to make sure you get a decent reward for your risk.

Take a look at the Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss). This will tell you how many dollars you are likely to win for every dollar you lose. The higher the profit factor the better the system. A system should have a profit factor of 1.5 or more, but watch out when you see profit factors above 3.0, because it might be that you over-optimized the system.

Here are some more characteristics you might want to consider besides the net profit of a system:

  • Winning percentage
    Many profitable trading systems achieve a nice net profit with a rather small winning percentage, sometimes even below 30%. These systems follow the principle “Cut your losses short and let your profits run”. However, YOU need to decide whether you can stand 7 losers and only 3 winners in 10 trades. If you want to be “right” most of the time, then you should pick a system with a high winning percentage.
  • Number of Trades per Month
    Do you need daily action? If you want to see something happening every day, then you should pick a trading system with a high number of trades per month. Many profitable trading systems generate only 2-3 trades per month, but if you are not patient enough to wait for it, then you should select a system with a higher trading frequency.
  • Average Time in Trade
    Some people get really nervous when they are in a trade. I have heard of people who can’t even sleep at night when they have an open position. If that’s you, then you should make sure that the average time in a trade is as short as possible. You might want to choose a system that does not hold any positions overnight.
  • Maximum Drawdown
    A famous trader once said: “If you want your system to double or triple your account, you should expect a drawdown of up to 30% on your way to trading riches.” Not every trader can stand a 30% drawdown. Look at the maximum drawdown the system produced so far, and double it. If you can stand this drawdown, then you found the right system. Why doubling? Remember: your worst drawdown is always ahead of you.
  • Most consecutive losses
    The amount of most consecutive losses has a huge impact on your trading, especially when you are using certain types of money management techniques. Five or six consecutive losses can cause you a lot of trouble when using an aggressive money management.
    In addition this number will help you to determine whether you have enough discipline to trade the system: Will you still trade the system after you have experienced 10 losses in a row? It’s not unusual for a profitable trading system to have 10-12 losses in a row.

Step 5: Improving your system

There is a difference between “improving” and “curve-fitting” a system. You can improve your system by testing different exit methods: If you are using a fixed stop, try a trailing stop instead. Add a time stop and evaluate the results again. Don’t look at the net profit only; look also at the profit factor, average profit per trade and maximum drawdown. Many times you will see that the net profit slightly decreases when you add different stops, but the other figures might improve dramatically.

Don’t fall into the trap of over-optimizing: You can eliminate almost all losers by adding enough rules. Simple example: If you see that on Tuesdays you had more losers than on the other weekdays, you might be tempted to add a “filter” that prevents your system from entering trades on Tuesdays. Next you find that in January you had much worse results than in other months, so you add a filter that enters trades only from February – December. You add more and more filters to avoid losses, and eventually you end up with a trading rule that I saw recently:

IF FVE > -1 And Regression Slope (Close , 35) / Close.35 * 100 > -.35 And Regression Slope (Close , 35) / Close.35 * 100 < .4 And Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 > -.4 And Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 < .4 And Regression Slope (Close , 170) / Close.170 * 100 > -.2 And MACD Diff (Close , 12 , 26 , 9) > -.003 And Not Tuesday And Not DayOfMonth = 12 and not Month = August and Time > 9:30 ...

Though you eliminated all possibilities of losing (in the past) and this trading system is now producing fantastic profits, it’s very unlikely that it will continue to do so when it hits reality.

Conclusion

Developing a trading system can be tricky, but it’s by far not as complicated as many vendors make you think. In the following we will present you a simple trading system that we developed using these steps.

How to optimize a trading system without curve-fitting it

There’s a fine line between “optimizing” and “curve-fitting”.
You have to make sure that your don’t over-optimize.

In the following example I’ll show you how to determined the “best” parameter without curve-fitting a system.

The underlying system is a simple breakout system. The system contains a parameter called TF_Param.

In the following I will explain how we optimized the parameter and why we selected 0.7 as the current value for the parameter.

First I run the optimization and look at the net profit, since that’s one of the most important figures.

As you can see, any parameter between 0.35 and 0.8 produces robust results.

Next I am looking at the max drawdown.

Any parameter above 0.4 produces a rather low drawdown, so using the combined information I would pick a TF_Param between 0.4 and 0.8.

Now I am looking at the average profit per trade:

The parameter range between 0.45 and1.2 looks promising, so I am limiting the TF_param to 0.45-0.8.

Now I am looking at the winning percentage. The higher, the better:

Anything above 0.5 produces a quite robust winning percentage above 50%.
As it seems, anything above 0.6 is quite good.
Combining all the previous results we should look for a TF_Param between 0.6 and 0.8

As a last test we look at the number of trades. Again: The higher, the better:

No surprises here: The lower the parameter, the more trades we get.

By combining all the above findings we see that a TF_Param between 0.6 and 0.8 produces best results.
That’s why 0.7 is definitely a good choice. Even if the market changes slightly, the system would still produce excellent results.

How long should I backtest a trading system?

I am frequently asked how long one should backtest a trading system. Though there's no easy answer, I will provide you with some guidelines. There are a few factors that you need to consider when determining the period for backtesting your trading system:

Trade frequency


How many trades per day does your trading system generate? It's not important how long you backtest a trading system; it's important that you receive enough trades to make statistically valid assumptions*: If your trading system generates three trades per day, i.e. 600 trades per year, then a year of testing gives you enough data to make reliable assumptions*. But if your trading system generates only three trades per month, i.e. 36 trades per year, then you should backtest a couple of years to receive reliable data.

Underlying contract


You must consider the characteristics of the underlying contract. The chart below shows the average daily volume of the e-mini S&P:

It doesn't make sense to backtest a trading system for the e-mini S&P before 1999, because the contract simply didn't exist! In my opnion it doesn't make sense to backtest an e-mini trading system before 2002 because at that time the market was completely different; less liquidity and different market participants. I believe that a reliable testing period for the e-mini S&P are the years 2002 - 2004.